Dive Brief:
- An aging population with heightened care needs and lagging labor trends will create a shortage of over 100,000 critical healthcare workers around the close of the decade, according to a recent study from consultancy Mercer.
- Certain states and specialties will weather most of the burden, according to the report. Mercer projects a deficit of 73,000 nursing assistants by 2028 as the field grows by just 0.1% per year.
- New York, New Jersey and Tennessee are likely to experience the largest labor shortages across all roles by the same year. Meanwhile California, Pennsylvania and Texas are projected to have a surplus of healthcare workers.
Dive Insight:
Mercer projects a total supply of 18.6 million healthcare workers in 2028 — and a shortage of over 100,000 to address national health needs. Still, some specialties and geographies are expected to have a surplus of workers.
The nation’s physician and registered nurse populations, for example, are expected to grow modestly over the next four years. Both fields are projected to have a surplus of workers nationwide by 2028, with registered nurses anticipated to have a surplus of about 30,000 by 2028.
However, even in growing fields, workers may be scarce in certain geographies. Mercer predicts California, Texas and New York will face deficits of physicians. Pennsylvania, Indiana and Minnesota will have a surplus. Registered nurses will be most scarce in New York, Tennessee and Massachusetts, according to the report.
Some shortages — such as the shortage of nursing assistants — are in part due to some professions growing at more sluggish rates than others.
Nurse practitioners are expected to grow at the fastest annual rate among the occupations reviewed by Mercer, while nursing assistants will grow the slowest.
While the projected shortage is an area for employers to watch — and consider when developing compensation strategy and technology to support smaller teams — the shortage does not compare to the spike in attrition seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the report.
Healthcare workers reported high rates of burnout following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic due to increased uncertainty, a rise in workplace violence and increased staffing pressures. Burnout contributed to elevated rates of attrition industry-wide.
Mercer notes that the field lost 100,000 workers between 2020 and 2022 alone.
To prevent a similar exodus now, employers should manage employee burnout early on to prevent an “endless spiral of attrition” related to burnout, the authors concluded.
“Given that attrition is often driven by burnout, healthcare systems need to ensure the well-being of existing employees. This can be done by fine-tuning the employee value proposition with respect to pay and benefits, schedule flexibility, career growth opportunities and job satisfaction,” according to the report.
Mercer said employers in hot markets might adjust their compensation strategies to help them recruit talent from less constrained regions — an option that wasn’t available during the pandemic, when shortages were far-reaching.
“Healthcare organizations may need to pivot recruitment beyond typical boundaries to meet talent where it is,” the report notes. “Whereas some states and metropolitan areas will have significant labor shortages, others will have surpluses, and it will be critical to know where those surpluses are.”
Mercer predicts that employee pressure on compensation will continue if talent shortages intensify.
Healthcare workers have already campaigned for increased wages and benefits through union organization and strikes. Last year, the industry witnessed its largest strike in decades when over 85,000 Kaiser Permanente workers walked off the job in order to achieve a 21% raise over four years.
